NFL Pool

Injury report Models

• FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index win projection.
• SRS: own point-margin ratings from ESPN results, home field 2.5 points.
• Elo: chain-rated from every completed game this season, home field 65 Elo points.
• Pythagorean: win rate from points scored and allowed, compared head to head.
• Scoring: each offense against the opposing defense, converted to a margin.
• Last 4: average margin over each team's last four games.
• Market: Polymarket moneyline price, where a market exists.
• Consensus: average of all available models. Pick is the side above 50%. Confidence: Low under 60%, Medium 60 to 74%, High 75% and above.

Backtest Other notes

• Projected scores come from season scoring averages, adjusted to the SRS margin. Totals are pulled 50% toward 44.5.
• Injuries are shown for reference and do not change any pick.
• Betting odds are not used.

Sources and status (last run)